Pacing Strategy for the Main Event

With the first day of the Dopey Challenge just days away, it’s time to zero in on pacing strategy. When I first started thinking about doing Dopey, I created a spreadsheet modeling different run/walk intervals and paces to see where I would end up.  Before I started training, I had this delusion that I could still run a 2:15 half marathon and a 4:45 full marathon on back-to-back days.   While participating in the Badgerland Striders Marathon Buildup program over the summer, I ran several long runs, 18 or more miles, under an 11-minute pace.  So 4:45 was perhaps a stretch, but 5 hours was within reason.   So I backed off my expectations to a 2:30 half-marathon and a 5-hour full marathon.

Then I started my Dopey Challenge training plan with back-to-back training runs and Dopey Simulations with 4-consecutive runs.  That was eye-opening as to how hard day 4, the full marathon, was going to be.  After the first Dopey Simulation where I barely completed 18 miles on Day 4, I thought I was conservatively backing off my pacing strategy to 10:30 for the 5k, 11:00 for the 10K, 11:30 for the half marathon, and 12:00 for the full marathon.  But day 4 of my second Dopey Simulation was still a struggle to finish 20 miles with a 12:12 average pace.  That run was in ideal indoor conditions at the Pettit National Ice Center.  I had nothing left after 20 miles, if that was race day, I would have been walking the last 6.2 miles.

 

I stuck to that pacing strategy for my third and final Dopey Simulation.  This time day 4 was outside on varied terrain with some minor but noticeable hills. I struggled to finish the last 5 miles and my average pace was 12:37 /mile.  Again, I would have been walking the last 6.2 miles.

 

My training strategy for this Dopey Challenge has been to do as much as I can as reasonably fast as I can, without injury, while minimizing episodes of irregular heart rate. My thinking was that the more I can push myself in training, the more I will be able to enjoy the experience at Disney.  I never had expectations for performance other than finishing all four races and being able to walk away from the experience with nothing but good memories.  But there is a relationship between how long I am on my feet one day and recovery time for the next day.  So there is a balance between getting each day done as quick as possible and not burning myself out for the next day.

 

With that in mind, I still want to have a pacing goal for each day.  Learning from my Dopey Simulation experiences, I think it is reasonable to back off my pacing targets by another 30 seconds per mile:  11:00 /mi for the 5K, 11:30 /mi for the 10K, 12:00 /mi for the half marathon, and 12:30 /mi for the full marathon.  The slower pace for days 1-3 should leave me with some extra capacity for day 4.  If I can get to mile 20 of the marathon at 12:30 /mi average pace, I would be fine with walking in the last 6.2 miles.

 

I also must watch my heart rate closely.  More important than the pacing targets is to keep my heart rate out of Zone 3, which means keeping it under 130 BPM. Much like I did on my training runs, I will have to increase the amount of walking if my heart rate creeps up into the 130’s.  I think, however, my new pacing targets are in sync with the heart rate target.  

 

Finally, how do those pacing targets translate to run/walk intervals?  For the 5K, I am just going to start out at my normal easy pace, which is about 10:30 /mi, and watch my heart rate.  If the lines are not too long, I may stop for a few character photos and I plan to take a lot of video with my GoPro.  I think taking in everything around me will naturally slow me down.  

 

Cat is running the 10K with me and we naturally run a lot slower than my normal pace when we run together.  We are just going to enjoy the experience, perhaps stop for a character photo or two, and I will again be capturing video.  I am not concerned about going too fast in the 10K.

 

The half-marathon is where pacing becomes important.  So much of the course is out on open roads, I know my instinct is going to be to get it done as quickly as possible.  While running through the parks, I plan to stop and capture video at the iconic spots.  But out on the roads, I will need to stick to my pacing, so I don’t burn myself out.  I am going to go with the same 3/1-minute run/walk intervals that I did in training, but I must keep my pace during running intervals down to about 10:30 /mi.  

 

The full-marathon strategy will depend on how I feel when I get to the starting line.  If I did everything right on the first three days, my plan is to stick with the 2/1-minute run/walk intervals that I used on my 20-mile training runs.  Again, I think the key is to keep the running pace to 10:30 /mi or slower.  I expect that after 15 miles, I will switch to longer walking intervals and by 20 miles I will be mostly walking.

 

My new pacing targets would bring me in at about 2:40:00 for the half marathon and 5:30:00 for the full marathon.  Much slower than I had envisioned four years ago when I first set my sights on Dopey, but I am four years older and perhaps still struggling with long term effects of COVID-19.  And my ultimate goal is simply to finish and still be able to enjoy Walt Disney World after the full marathon.